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A couple of the best lightweights in the world are just about to scrap less than a month off, and here are my thoughts on this brilliant matchup between two of the most exciting fighters on the UFC roster.
Tony Ferguson vs. Donald Cerrone A lightweight matchup between Tony Ferguson and Donald Cerrone has been added to UFC 238, which takes place June 8 at United Center in Chicago, Illinois. ESPN first reported that the matchup, which came together on short notice after Ferguson was recently cleared to fight again from the UFC, who wanted to beef up its own forthcoming PPV crd in Chicago.
Ferguson (24-3) is 14-1 overall from the UFC and is now riding an impressive 11-fight win series, which is one of the longest winning streaks of any active UFC fighter. Ferguson is coming from a massive TKO win over Anthony Pettis in one of 2018’s top struggles back in UFC 229, but has not fought yet in 2019 due to accidents and individual troubles. He had been recently cleared by doctors and from the UFC to come back to the cage, and the game is much better off with him because he is an amazing fighter who constantly puts amazing fights for the fans. Ferguson has been waiting a long time to get a title shot 155lbs but has not got one to this stage. However, if he can go out there and beat Cerrone in impressive style, it would not be possible for the UFC matchmakers to pass on giving him a title shot. With UFC lightweight champion Khabib Nurmagomedov likely fighting interim champ Dustin Poirier at September at UFC 242 to combine the straps, Ferguson could have a fantastic debate to fight the winner of the bout.
Cerrone (36-11, 1 NC) is 23-8, 1 NC from the Octagon and is the winningest fighter in UFC history. Though he’s 36 now, Cerrone is arguably fighting the highest clip of his career to date as he’s coming off of three straight upset wins over Mike Perry, Alex Hernandez and Al Iaquinta, the latter two coming in the lightweight division. Although the fight with Iaquinta happened just last wee, Cerrone took small damage in that fight and as soon as the opportunity to fight Ferguson on short notice came up he needed to accept it. Most of us know Cerrone is always willing to fight anybody, everywhere, so maybe it’s not surprising to see him struggle Ferguson within just a few weeks, even though it’s likely to be a tough fight as Ferguson is a stud.
This is a tremendous fight, and one that should very popular amongst sports bettors. Although Cerrone has looked great since moving to lightweight, he was the betting underdog in his last and I really don’t find any reason why he would not be a puppy back to Ferguson, who’s on such a long win streak. The oddsmakers agree with me, as they recently opened the odds for the struggle, with Ferguson opening as a -245 favored with the comeback on Cerrone at +175. Personally, I believe the line needs to be somewhat tighter, but Ferguson deserves to be the betting favorite regardless.
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After a hiatus of more than two years from the game, the UFC’s largest star Conor McGregor is back in action, looking to reclaim his lightweight title out of undefeated Khabib Nurmagomedov at UFC 229 in vegas on October 6. The champ, Nurmagomedov, started as the betting favorite at -160 with the challenger, McGregor, coming back as the +120 underdog.
These two warriors have a good deal of bad blood coming from an altercation between Khabib and Conor’s friend and teammate Artem Lobov earlier UFC 223 at New York in April. Now the highly anticipated struggle is official and sportsbooks like BetOnline happen to be accepting wagers on this forthcoming bout.
To wager McGregor vs Khabib
When it comes to betting for the first time, the odds you commonly hear are on the moneyline. While McGregor came back as the +120 underdog, the launching moneyline had Khabib since the -160 favorite. Fundamentally, moneyline is a fancy term for who is going to win.
But what exactly does +120 and -160 mean? Well, for the minus-money, you would have to bet that much to earn $100 so in the case of this scrap, you would bet $160 to earn a profit of $100 for a total of $260. Betting on McGregor in +120 means that in case you bet $100, you would profit an additional $120 for a total of 220. On a smaller scale, for every dollar you wager on McGregor, you can gain $1.20, whereas you would need to bet $1.60 to gain $1 in the event that you bet on Khabib.
The cause of this can be oddsmakers give the advantage to Khabib to acquire and they would like you to bet more to get a smaller reward. On the other hand, if you gamble on Conor, who oddsmakers think will shed, you can make more of a profit when he pulls off the upset.
So far this season when it has to do with underdogs vs favorites, the underdogs have won 36.1 percentage of fights, with the biggest upset by Paul Craig in +535 (for every dollar you wagered, you’d have profited $5.35) over Magomed Akalaev.
With the introduction odds of -160 for Khabib and +120 for Conor, sportsbooks expect a close struggle. For comparison, when Conor fought Floyd Mayweather Jr. in last year’s superfight, the undefeated boxer opened at -800 with the UFC celebrity coming back in +500, which shows a huge disparity plus a more lopsided perspective of this bout.
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A few new UFC bouts are revealed for upcoming fight cards, including a re-booking of a thrilling bantamweight fight. Below are the new matchups, along with my first thoughts on these.
John Lineker vs. Cory Sandhagen, UFC on ESPN 3
The UFC has re-booked that a bantamweight bout between John Lineker and Cory Sandhagen for UFC on ESPN 3, which takes place April 27 at American Airlines Arena in Miami, Florida. The bout, which was initially supposed to take place at the cancelled UFC 233 event, was first reported by ESPN’s Ariel Helwani. Lineker (31-8) is 12-3 overall in the UFC including a 6-1 mark since moving up full-time to the bantamweight division. He is coming off of back-to-back wins over Brian Kelleher and Marlon Vera, with a reduction to TJ Dillashaw sandwiching his past win streak that included him getting his hands raised over John Dodson, Rob Font, Francisco Rivera and Michael McDonald. He has consistently been among the most exciting lighter-weight fighters in the UFC for years and will always be in the hunt for a bonus on any card he fights on.
Sandhagen (10-1) is 3-0 at the UFC and is currently on a five-fight win streak overall which includes stoppage wins over Iuri Alcantara and Austin Arnett in the Octagon. He’s starting to resemble a top prospect at 135lbs and has earned this matchup against Lineker, even though it won’t be an easy one to win by any means since Lineker is a superb test for him. I definitely think Sandhagen will be a live puppy worth a look as the younger fighter, but Lineker deserves to be the favorite here according to his own body of work from the UFC.
Alexander Yakovlev vs. Teemu Packalen, UFC Fight Night 149
Also announced was a lightweight bout at UFC Fight Night 149 involving Alexander Yakovlev and Teemu Packalen. The card occurs April 20 at Yubileyny Sports Palace in St. Petersburg, Russia. The bout was first reported by MMABetz. Yakovlev (23-8-1) is just 2-4 overall in the UFC and has not competed since a submission loss to Zak Cummings in November 2016. Before that, Yakovlev lost a choice to Kamaru Usman also it was presumed by most that he had been murdered at this point. Certainly that isn’t true as he’s booked for a different struggle, however, the fact he has been away for nearly three years is obviously concerning. Yakovlev does hold noteworthy wins over Paul Daley and Gray Maynard, but overall he has been very inconsistent in the UFC.
Packalen (8-2) is only 1-2 in the UFC and has not fought since a KO loss to Marc Diakese in March 2017. All eight of Packalen’s career wins have come by end, such as a bonus-winning entry over Thibault Gouti from the UFC, but generally he’s been a bit of a letdown from the Octagon. This is a struggle between two guys who have been inconsistent at the UFC and who have not fought in forever, so flip a coin here. I hope Yakovlev is going to be a small favorite here since the fight is in Russia, but he isn’t really someone you can trust with your cash.
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